Asian economies could benefit from Bolton’s resignation

The sudden resignation of John Bolton from the post of adviser to the US president on national security improves prospects for inflation and growth in Asia, writes Asia Times.

Oil prices fell $ 1 per barrel for several hours after reports that US President Donald Trump either demanded or accepted Bolton’s resignation.

Bolton served as National Security Advisor for 17 months: he was appointed to this position in April 2018.

According to Vesti.Ekonomika, Bolton was known for his hawkish rhetoric and aggressive views in foreign policy. He supported US military interventions in various countries, particularly in Iraq.

Trump fired Bolton because of disagreements over US foreign policy
Oil prices fall on rumors of possible easing of US sanctions against Iran
US market. Bolton’s resignation may indicate a decrease in the belligerent tone of the United States
According to the Washington Post, one of the latest examples of disagreement between Trump and Bolton was the divergence of views on the situation in Afghanistan. Trump allegedly advocated the complete withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, but Bolton objected to this scenario.

John Bolton also held aggressive views in US foreign policy towards Latin America, advocating pressure on Venezuela and Cuba.

Bolton took a tough stance when it came to negotiations with Iran. Trump, by contrast, says he hopes to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Bolton’s resignation also reduces the likelihood that the US will bring down “fire and rage” on the DPRK, as Trump once put it.

Relieving tensions that help lower oil prices is good news for Asian economies, Asia Times notes. For countries facing double budget and current account deficits, higher energy prices only add to financial difficulties. The Bolton Effect has created a burden for a number of countries from India to Indonesia and the Philippines. Infrastructure boom in Asian countries requires increased energy imports, which reinforce the impact of high oil prices and push inflation up.

Those with healthier balance of payments positions — Malaysia, South Korea, and Taiwan — were less vulnerable to market chaos this year.

However, ClearView Energy Partners analysts said: «We would have cautioned against the a priori conclusion that the administration after Bolton could significantly deviate from these positions.» Who knows, maybe Trump will replace Bolton with an even bigger hawk.

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